Stormy times ahead for North Atlantic region

The next few months will see a huge raft of tropical storms in the North Atlantic, says the UK's meteorological service. 

The Met Office in the UK predicts 20 storms between July and November, making it one of the most active seasons on record. 

In the last 40 years only 2005 has seen more storms in the same period, with 25 recorded. For the past three years, the Met Office forecast has given a good indication of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and was able to identify the relatively quiet seasons of 2007 and 2009 from the active season of 2008. 

This year the Met Office has moved to a new prediction system called GloSea4. The new generation model has better representation of the complex physical processes that cause tropical storms and hurricanes to form, which should further improve the accuracy of the forecast. The forecast also uses information from the seasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. 

Matt Huddleston, Principal Consultant on climate change at the Met Office said: "North Atlantic tropical storms affect us all through fluctuating oil, food and insurance markets. The Met Office forecast has demonstrated its benefits over recent years through the accuracy of its predictions." 

One of the key indicators for a tropical storm season is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which affects sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and, remotely, conditions in the North Atlantic. It's therefore vital to be able to accurately predict the ENSO cycle and GloSea4 has shown good skill in such predictions. 

Forecasts and background information on tropical storms can be found here.